The 16th U.N. Climate Change Conference will held soon in Cancun, Mexico, The latest report of UNEP(the United Nations Environment Programme) shows that if countries fulfill the emission reduction commitments which made in Copenhagen 2009, it is possible to control the global warming temperature within 2℃. This conclusion is not only to affirm “Copenhagen Accord”, but also makes people are full of hope for the coming Cancun conference.

Expected emission reduction amount has 5 billion tons gap with the scientific data.

On November 23, the United Nations Environment Programme held the news conference in Helsinki, Mexico, Nairobi, London, Washington, and issued a evaluation report entitled "Emissions Gap Report: <Copenhagen Accord>, whether it is sufficient to limit the global warming to 2℃ or 1.5℃?”. This report was co-authored by more than 30 top scientists from a number of international research institutes, based on the work carried out after the end of the Copenhagen Climate Conference. It evaluated the possibility and measures to limit the global warming to 2℃ or 1.5℃ this century.

The report set a variety of hypothetical scenarios to assess the total global emissions in 2020. The report stated: In accordance with the assumption of "business as usual", , global greenhouse gas emissions could reach 56 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020; If countries fully implement the commitment for emission reduction in "Copenhagen Accord", the most optimistic estimate of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 can be reduced to about 49 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; but under the worst situation, if the countries only fulfill the minumin emission reduction amount, the emissions in 2020 could be 53 billion tons which is slightly less than the expected data. The estimated global greenhouse gas emissions are approximately 49 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2009.

 It is estimated that, it is possible to limit the global warming to 2℃ or 1.5℃ by low cost and high benefit in the 21st century, the global greenhouse gas emissions must peak in the next 10 years, and by 2020, global emissions should be less than 44 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. That means the countries fully implement the "Copenhagen Accord" commitment and willingness case, there will still be 50 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emission reduction shortfall which needed to be achieved in the next few decades. 50 million tons of carbon dioxide are equivalent to the total emissions of all the cars, buses and trucks in the world in 2005.

　　 The report clearly shows that, regardless of gap exists or not, the emission reduction task is still arduous if it needs to keep the global warming temperature in 2℃ after 2020; and if it needs to achieve the target of 1.5℃, the reduction of the emissions after 2020 should be accelerated -- 4-5% fall per year, and negative growth should be started from year 2050.

 Adhere to the Copenhagen Accord and anchor hopes on Cancun.

 The report which based on the "Copenhagen Accord" commitment is not only to affirm “Copenhagen Accord”, but also makes people are full of hope for the coming Cancun conference.

 U.N. Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said, “the research shows that the Copenhagen conference is successful if all the commitment and willingness and fund subsidy are fully achieved, including the commitment to support developing countries.”

 Mexico's Environment and Natural Resources Minister Juan Rafael Elvira claimed,” the proposed emission reduction target of the countries in Copenhagen Accord is three times higher than the data achieved in Kyoto Protocol, this is a positive signal to reflect the progress. but we must formally document the current commitments, and transform them into a formal commitment of the developed countries and clear action of developing countries.

 50 million tons of emissions is a not a small gap, the report said although we could eliminate the gap by strong domestic action, the most important thing was to join the efforts of countries worldwide. Such efforts will be reflected in the forthcoming conference in Cancun, Mexico.

 For this point, Director Achim Steiner said, although there was a gap between the required the scientific data and the current commitment, the report stated that the current negotiations were holding around some practical ways to achieve 60% of target, which was a good start. If both of the developing countries and developed countries can improve their emission reduction target, and take proper actions to “non-carbon dioxide” which generated from the methane, biomass and animal waste, the emission gap would be eliminated.

 He said, although the report stated that it was possible to limit the climate change in controllable range, but with delays year by year, the window for cost-effective actions was narrowing. The Cancun conference provided new opportunity, countries around the world should seize this opportunity to agree on a new international treaty which could eliminate the emissions gap and the keep the window open.

 The Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres of “UN Framework Convention on Climate Change” said, the report of UNEP stressed on the possibility of emission reduction, and also we need to promote international cooperation to achieve the emission reduction target. Governments participating in the Cancun UN Climate Conference must adhere to the commitments which made in Copenhagen and the United Nations, speed up the effort to agree on the emission reduction program and limit the temperature rise range in 2℃.